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InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Update:

- Despite quake, tsunami, EU bond yield surge, weaker sentiment, and morning pundit predictions the market would selloff, it didn't.
- January retail sales rise in line at 1%, but driven so to speak by gasoline price increases.
- Michigan sentiment takes a hit on gasoline prices. Inflation expectations jump.
- Business sales hit a 12 month high at 2%.
- SP500 looks just like November and SP600 as well. NASDAQ and SOX, however, have to make a comeback.


You hate to ask what more can happen, yet the market is holding up for now.

It was another day loaded with news. Unfortunately there was some tragic news with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of that natural disaster, as well as those rushing to their aid. The US Navy and many other branches of the service are rushing to give supplies and equipment to Japan to help the relief effort.

In addition to that terrible news, there were other worries out. There was an EU bond yield surge. We cannot forget the debt crisis (with the US included) that still has to be dealt with. Bond yields were surging, and there was weaker sentiment in the US. There were a lot of predictions by the pundits that the market would sell off as the day wore on. You would expect that looking at the futures early on, but that is not what happened. Indeed, we were looking at the futures and the charts. We put out a premarket alert saying that the market would bounce. It was merely a technical bounce; there was no solid foundation or reason for it to do it other than a technical situation. Sure enough, that is exactly what happened on the day.

The futures were down but, almost to the minute that the bell rang, the market turned positive and rallied throughout the session. It came back a bit late in the day, but overall quite solid. NASDAQ, +0.5%; SP500, +0.75%; Dow, +0.5%; SP600; +20%; SOX +1%. It has a long way to come back. It has been beaten up this week, but it managed to post a gain even though it looks to be a relief gain at best.

It was not a huge day to the upside, but it was not a day to complain. It was a relief bounce on some of the indices and individual sectors. SP500 still looks quite solid. The slight undercut of the 50 day EMA on Thursday and a recovery on Friday sure makes it look like November. Of course looks can be deceiving, so we cannot bank everything on the fact that February and March look like November of 2010.

You do have to take what the market gives you, and it was bouncing nicely. There were great stocks moving very well on Friday. It was not just a relief move. Retailers were moving quite nicely. Old standbys such as CHS were rallying nicely. BONT tested and looks to be ready to bounce back up after breaking from a triangle. This was common. There were energy stocks moving back up well, particularly the refineries such as FTO. Some technology stocks were performing well. A had a nice reach lower and reverse. These are solid stocks in solid patterns performing nicely even as some sectors show wear and tear. We will discuss more of those in the leadership section.


Dollar: 1.3911 Euro versus 1.3790. You might wonder why the dollar would sell off with an earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The reason is that the yen really surged. It surged against everything because insurance claims in Japan will have to be paid in yen. They would be buying yen and selling other assets to acquire more yen. Insurance companies would be doing this to make their payments. Therefore you would see a stronger yen even though there was a devastating natural disaster on the Japanese economy.

The dollar has rallied back from a support level. It was a setback on Friday given the extraneous circ*mstance, and we will see if it can bounce from here and continue the move up to test this range of resistance from November into January.
Click to view the chart

Bonds: 10 year 3.40% yield versus 3.36%. Bonds sold on the session. There are two interesting side notes with respect to the bond action. The first is that bond yields are surging in Europe. That is the part of inflation you get when you have a weak debt picture. When your balance sheet is very weak, it requires those buying your debt to demand more return. In other words, they demand more yield for the bonds they are buying. Then the bonds drop in price and the yield goes up. Then you have a point where no one wants them and the yields spiral out of control.

Another interesting thing was that CNBC had the CEO of WFC on today. Mr. John Stumpf said WFC was really into the game as far as lending. He said it was a "myth" that WFC and other banks were not lending. He even went onto say that they were really pushing those loans, but the small business demand was not there. They started a campaign of a "second look" where they would look at loans that they had fallen short before, and then would do whatever they could to make those loans.

Wow, that sounds almost like they are really trying. I bank with WFC and know a lot of small businesses do as well, and they could not get money out of them if they wanted to. Several of them I talked to said when they went to WFC, they would not even grant them a sit down. They immediately said they would stick them into the small business plan without even looking at them. They did not get a first look much less the second look. I talked to many of them today, and they said they were not getting any calls from their bankers and loan officers saying they were getting a second look.

It is a bunch of crapola. I'm sorry, but that is the way it is. I have contacts inside this bank way up, and they say they are not catering to small business at all. They are going for people with extremely high net worth X hundreds of millions in net worth. That is who they are making loans to and catering to. I am not just picking on WFC, but they are a big bank in our neck of the woods, so everyone knows them. When the CEO says this kind of nonsensical drivel on CNBC, it is almost fraud. It is incredible. I would love to put him under oath and have him say that to Congress because he would be committing perjury. I guess you have to know if you are committing perjury X pure stupidity does not cover it. In any event, I do not want to pick on just them, but what the hell.

Bonds are trying to rally here in the US, and that is not a necessarily a great thing. There has been a lot of unrest in the world overall, so you would think bonds would rally in a flight to safety in the US. That is what we are seeing. There is no major turn. Inflation will be a big issue. The fear factor right now has helping push bonds higher and yields somewhat lower, although on Friday yields did bounce up.
Click to view the chart

Gold: $1,421.00, +8.50. Gold was not in play today, but it did bounce to the upside. It is still holding its gains over the trio of highs in late 2010. It is testing and looks like it could still make the move back to the upside.
Click to view the chart

Oil: $101.13, -1.57. Oil is the big story X how everything will be impacted by moves in oil and how disasters such as in Japan impact oil. Japan is the world's third largest oil importer. You would expect oil to be weak if Japan was hit with a big natural disaster since that would quell demand. Oil did decline rather sharply intraday. It reached almost all the way down to the 20 day EMA and this pennant consolidation (the first consolidation after breaking to a new high on this rally). It recovered from trading below $100 during the session, however.

Oil was also weakened by Sheikh Alwaleed bin Talal in Saudi Arabia. He likes to play the market and speak on CNBC. He used to be a big share holder in Citibank X maybe he still is. There were a lot of questions bandied back and forth, and one was whether oil is justified at $100 a barrel. He said it is not. He said it was all being driven by fear right now, and that if things quiet down oil prices will decline. That is the point: "If things calm down." Everywhere you look, something bad has happened. You cannot swing a dead cat without hitting a problem. Natural disasters, political unrest, protests, violence, churches being burned X you name it. It is not that great out there.

I hope no one gets mad because I said "swing a dead cat." That is a colloquialism in the southern United States from Tom Sawyer times. Indeed, it was from Huckleberry Finn. I am just throwing out a bit of Americana, but every time I say something like that I get emails from people getting upset. Please, cat lovers, I am just trying to liven it up and getting a little colloquial with my terminology.

In any event, looking at the pattern on oil, there is nothing that suggests it is about to sell off. Indeed, it is coming back and making a very nice test. It may snug up a bit more near the $100 range. I bet that is where it holds and tries to bounce back to the upside.
Click to view the chart


Retail sales up but gasoline prices are the cause: burning dollars in the tank.

Michigan Sentiment tumbles on rising gasoline prices and expectations of inflation.

To view the Economy Video follow the link below:
Economy Summary Video



Internals were not that strong considering the upside moves. That suggests it was a relief bounce from the Thursday selloff. Frankly, that is what we were expecting.

Volume. Volume declined 18% to 1.88B on the NASDAQ. It fell 20% on the NYSE to a mere 921M, falling just below average.

Breadth. Breadth was a yawner. Advancers lead 1.1:1 on the NASDAQ and a bit better at 1.8:1 on the NYSE. One reason is the rebound in energy. Also the small caps are performing better. They have not broken their 50 day EMA, and that makes it more interesting.


SP500. SP500 did bounce on that lower volume, but it retook the 50 day EMA. It is not a carbon copy of November, but it is close. We had a strong initial selloff on the current test. It was slower in November, but it did make this double bottom that ultimately led to the bounce. Notice how the second bottom was right on the 50 day EMA. The difference is it snapped off that level each session that it tapped it. It did not close near it.

On Thursday it closed just below the 50 day EMA. There is a bit of difference, but not as strong. That has people worried, of course, and it is always something to watch. Overall the pattern is still solid, however. One concern is that MACD is really hitting the toilet. Not only is it not high as it has been X not that bad because the SP500 has not rebounded up to those highs X but it is really hitting the skids and heading lower. It did do the same thing in November. Do not get too wrapped up in that. Look more for comparisons of price highs versus MACD highs. When it made this last high, SP500 and MACD both put in a high. Here it is putting in an overall higher high, and that is a relatively good indication. SP500 continues to look just fine, all things considered.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is struggling, on the other hand. It gapped below the 50 day EMA on Thursday. It recovered on Friday after gapping lower at the open and immediately reversing. It did post a gain, but the problem is it tapped at the 50 day EMA on the high and tapped at these prior resistance levels. These were the February lows and the gapping lateral range from January. It tapped them and it faded to the close. It still managed to hold a gain, but the close off of that key level shows it had no guts to take it on. Therefore, I do not know if it will have the guts to continue. Can it be dragged back up by SP500, or will it drag SP500 lower as SOX dragged the NASDAQ lower?

SP600. SP600 still looks good. It has yet to break its 50 day EMA. It did it pretty much on the Friday open, but it bounced right back up and closed over that level. Very solid action. Again, will it survive the gravitational tugs from NASDAQ and the SOX as they head lower? We will have to see if those indices do head lower. They do not look that healthy. SP500 has gotten the snot knocked out of it this week. It was trying to put a decent consolidation together, but it broke lower and gapped sharply lower on Thursday. It gapped and came back up on Friday. You could almost say this is an engulfing day, but volume was not that great overall. It did not quite take out that peak on Thursday.

You could say maybe that it's an ABCD, but it is a really jagged pattern. If this was just a clean sweep up from this level without the big dip, that would be much more meaningful. Right now it has on the ropes and it has to prove itself.

SOX. Even though it may bounce near term, it looks like the path of least resistance will be more selling right now. I hate to be a pessimist, but that surely is the way it looks.


Financial. JPM barely missed a beat on the Friday action. It sold Thursday, but held up its pattern very well over the 50 day EMA. Still looking solid. EWBC looks good, continuing its trend higher. It is below the 20 day EMA, but it also broke below the 20 day EMA in late February and continued to the upside. GS is holding support, doggedly so. It will not give it up.

I am not necessarily ready to dive into it. I am not totally comfortable with it. It has something of a triangle trying to set up, but it is not hitting enough points. That is always a concern. STT is struggling. It is slowly winding its way lower. Not all financials are strong, but they are looking solid overall.

Retail. Retail continues to look good. HIBB had a nice surge on earnings. It could not quite hold it, but it is a great pattern. ZUMZ announced its earnings as well. It gapped down but rallied back. It will likely not collapse here. I am going out on a limb there, but it looks solid despite the action on Friday.

RL had very nice action. JCP is looking okay. It had a doji on Friday, but it has had a great week, surging to the upside. AMZN might be ready to roll back to the upside. Do not forget the strong ones like LULU. It looks very appealing as it sets up a very nice pattern.

Energy. A lot of energy stocks held at the 50 day EMA and were bouncing back on Friday, although they started lower (such as HAL). FTO did very well with a nice break to the upside on volume. XOM held the 50 day EMA and is trying to bounce. That was pretty much the story of the sector.

Technology. Tech has been lagging, but AAPL held the 50 day EMA and bounced. Cannot complain about that kind of action from AAPL. It has held the 50 day EMA many times on this run. FFIV, similar to AMZN, may be trying to roll back up with a nice bounce. We will have to see if it can play out. SOHU is finally starting to make the move we anticipated X a great break to the upside on Friday. Strong volume as it made that move.

NTES may be able to break higher to the upside out of this pennant it is forming. BIDU is starting to break to the upside. Interesting action. We have a nice rally and then it sold off. No ABCD because it kept making higher lows. It put in a bit of a triangle and started the break to the upside. That makes BIDU quite interesting for us. I hate that it is up almost 3.5% on the day. Maybe we will get a pullback Monday. We will see if we can get something out of that.

Metals. Metals are suddenly improving. STLD had a nice break to the upside. It looked like it was selling off, but it is not out of the woods. These are worth considering and keeping an eye on. We have been watching SCHN, and it did not hold as we wanted it to. It gapped lower, but it is trying to come back. We will see what happens. AKS is the same situation as STLD. It sold off, but now it is making a comeback. Very interesting indeed. FCX is trying to bounce after that sharp selloff that made us some very good money to the downside.

Industrial. CAT held the 50 day EMA and bounced back, and maybe it has an ABCD pattern. It looks negative. There is the lower high and lower low, but you have the ABCD. There is a nice rally here, and it is holding at a logical point. It has not given back off of the move because it is holding above this consolidation range. That makes it quite interesting. JOYG has similar action, although it is getting close to the bottom. It did not take it out. There is an ABCD pattern.

I wanted it to hold at the 50 day EMA and make the bounce higher. That would have been cool, but we do not have a problem with a further shakeout either. If it can make the move, then it makes the move. We do not care necessarily what it looks like as long as the pattern is true. There were stocks under stress, but there are also stocks in very good position to move higher. They are still getting money and looking solid. They could lead the market right back up.

Semiconductors. Semiconductors are not necessarily bouncing right back up. XLNX sold off hard. It is trying to bounce, but it stalled out on the way back up at the 50 day EMA. LRCX is trying to bounce, but it is not showing that power to the upside that you would like to see. ONNN has bounced modestly, but it does not look all that strong. It has a broad top here and it rolled over. It has to come up and attack that 50 day EMA and see what it can do at that level. There are leaders in trouble, and leaders that have more to do. They may even want to sell more. At the same time, there are other sectors doing well. Strange as it may seem, retail continues to look as if it wants to move to the upside.



VIX: 20.08; -1.8
VXN: 22.49; -1.78
VXO: 20.62; -1.3

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.02

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 52.2% versus 50.6%. Bouncing right back up despite the market chop, moving toward the 53.3% three weeks back. Below the 55.1% hit in January and the 58.8% high on this leg. Still at a high level in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 21.1% versus 19.5%. Bears remain skeptical and grew in number even as bulls grew in number as well. Still below the 23.3% hit 5 weeks back and below the 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +14.59 points (+0.54%) to close at 2715.61
Volume: 1.882B (-18.12%)

Up Volume: 1.27B (+904.93M)
Down Volume: 563.59M (-1.436B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 5.79 to 1

New Highs: 33 (-1)
New Lows: 73 (+6)

NASDAQ CHART: Click to view the chart

NASDAQ 100 CHART: Click to view the chart

SOX CHART: Click to view the chart


Stats: +9.17 points (+0.71%) to close at 1304.28
NYSE Volume: 921.06M (-19.91%)

Up Volume: 722.66M (+609.16M)
Down Volume: 184.04M (-845.96M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.84 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.71 to 1

New Highs: 54 (+9)
New Lows: 21 (-10)

SP500 CHART: Click to view the chart

SP600 Chart: Click to view the chart


Stats: +59.79 points (+0.5%) to close at 12044.4
Volume DJ30: 143M shares Friday versus 181M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: Click to view the chart


Next week brings a plethora of economic news starting with a lot of regional manufacturing reports. New York comes in on Tuesday. We will have the rate decision by the Fed on Tuesday as well. It probably will not give us any kind of change of plan, although we need to start looking for the pullback. Even though there was Quantitative Easing II, it will run out by the summer. The Fed will have to start telling us what it will do after that X whether it will go to Quantitative Easing III, as some are suggesting, or if it will do a complete pullback. If it starts talking pullback, that is when the market will start to panic and drop. Some are saying that is why it is doing it right now; it is starting to factor in the Fed eventually backing off from this massive liquidity pump.

There are also housing starts and building permits. There is the PPI, the CPI, and the Philly Fed on Thursday. There is nothing scheduled on Friday. We have plenty of data to keep the market occupied X as if it needs it. We also have the bond issues in Europe and the riots there. We have the protests, riots, and church burnings, etc. in North Africa and the Middle East. There is continuing turmoil in Libya. It is an unbelievable denial what the Libyan government says versus what is showing up on film. That is always the way when dealing with a totalitarian society. Sometimes it does not even have to be totalitarian, as we know.

There are also the natural disasters. Then we have our own issues in the US with the state capitals and the disagreements between those wanting collective bargaining in the public sphere and those wanting to take away some of the luxurious punch bowl that has been doled out and cannot continue. That is an interesting story itself. All of this will have to work its way out.

It is one of the most interesting years we have had in quite some time. Of course I keep saying that about every other year. That just shows you how the world has to adjust to get along with each other better in a time where the global economy is truly becoming global. There is also a fight to maintain elements of sovereignty that you have to in any country. There are some ways that we do not want to be like other countries. They do not necessarily want to be like us. It is a good thing we keep our identity, but we have to figure out how to work together as we do it. We are having some growing pains with respect to that.

In any event, there is a lot of activity, and that is all an overlay to the technical picture. We have talked a lot about the SP500 and the SP600 looking fine in their patterns. You can even throw the DJ30 in as well. I liked the DJ20 a few weeks ago, but as soon as they hit that new high they were sold off. There is an issue there as well. Nonetheless, we had these consolidations, and we will see if the SP500, SP600 and the Dow can offset the likes of the SOX. It is in a lot of trouble at this point, and NASDAQ is below the 50 day EMA and not looking like a spring chicken either.

Friday we got a bounce we were looking for. Come Monday, I hope we are not kicking ourselves in the behind for not closing more upside positions with this bounce. We will see how that plays out. Again, there are many good upside stocks. There are good sectors doing well and stocks within those sectors performing well. That keeps us heartened that money is still moving into these areas and others in the market. Some leaders like the semiconductors and energy, however, need some air let out of them. They have had tremendous runs, but it looks as if oil will continue higher. If it does, that should help prop up a bunch of the energy stocks that pulled back to their 50 day EMA.

BHI had a very solid day. It bounced sharply off of its 50 day EMA. It is not a lost cause by any means. There are some chips that even still look good, although they are getting few and far between. It is getting difficult to find a lot of good stocks even in the technology sector. They are out there, but it is harder to find some of them so you look in other areas.

We have been mining some of the retail areas. They have looked good. Even some of the technology stocks have come around and started to look better after they have consolidated. We will continue to look for the upside plays because we have some key indices that are still in their uptrends and still look as if they want to hold them.

We will also be looking at some of the downside. They made us good money this past week with X, FCX, etc. But it has been a tough go making money to the downside because the bid under the market bounces it right back up. We may get some improvement again in the metals. They are trying to come around. It will still be a market where we look for the upside plays. We will look for downside plays in sectors that are corroding and starting to crumble. We can play it both ways, almost having our cake and eating it, too. It is a bit choppier and tougher to do, no doubt.

We will keep our play sizes down for now. Do not try to be a hero. There is no point to that in these kinds of transition stages. Even if it does not change the trend, it just rotates and becomes very choppy for awhile before resuming the move. We have made money doing it, sure. We have been banking gain now and then with three or four plays here and there. It is not the steady four or five plays a day. It shows you there is chop going on. You should not take as big of trades, and you should not overweigh your portfolio with any one of these plays in particular. Take even trades and take smaller ones. Do not be greedy, and just let the plays work.

If they do, that is great. If they do not, you can get out of them and move on. You are not going to win the game in this kind of market, but this kind of market can help you lose the game if you are not careful. You do not want to take big risks at a time when it doesn't warrant you taking big risks. Narrow the size, narrow the goal. Be happy with smaller gains and do not let losses get out of hand.

Enjoy the weekend. We will hope and pray for the people in Japan and other places affected by the tsunami. We hope that everyone in the world can settle down and see the big picture. Then maybe some of this hostility will end. I know it is pollyanna, but there is power in positive thought. If you get enough people thinking positive thoughts X like in Kelly's Heroes, "Stop with the negative waves, Moriarty!" Let us start having some positive vibes, and you would be surprised how things happen.

If you do not think it will happen around the world, at least do it for your portfolio. Have confidence in your trade, because that makes a huge amount of difference. Be confident and positive, and you will act quickly and decisively. You will get out of trouble faster, and you will let other plays run that are working for you if you are confident and bold in your actions.

Enough of my pep talk. Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2715.61
The 50 day EMA at 2730
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak

2705 is the February 2011 and consolidation low
2686 is the recent January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2593 is the November 2010 high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
2460 is the November 2010 low.
The 200 day SMA at 2456

S&P 500: Closed at 1304.28
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low

The 50 day EMA at 1297
1294 is the February 2011 and the consolidation low
1278 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1185 from late September 2008
The 200 day SMA at 1179
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1173 is the November 2010 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks

Dow: Closed at 12,044.40
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

The 50 day EMA at 11,974
11,893, from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,205 is the April closing high
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,025
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the Economy section.

March 11 - Friday
- Retail Sales, February (08:30): 1.0% actual versus 1.0% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.3%)
- Retail Sales ex-auto, February (08:30): 0.7% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior (revised from 0.3%)
- Michigan Sentiment, March (09:55): 68.2 actual versus 76.5 expected, 77.5 prior
- Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.9% actual versus 0.8% expected, 1.1% prior (revised from 0.8%)

March 15 - Tuesday
- Empire Manufacturing, March (08:30): 17.0 expected, 15.43 prior
- Export Prices ex-ag., February (08:30): 0.9% prior
- Import Prices ex-oil, February (08:30): 0.8% prior
- Net Long-Term TIC Fl, January (09:00): $65.9B prior
- NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 17 expected, 16 prior
- FOMC Rate Decision, March (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

March 16 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 03/11 (07:00): +15.5% prior
- Housing Starts, February (08:30): 570K expected, 596K prior
- Building Permits, February (08:30): 573K expected, 562K prior
- PPI, February (08:30): 0.6% expected, 0.8% prior
- Core PPI, February (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.5% prior
- Current Account Balance, Q4 (08:30): -$110.0B expected, -$127.2B prior
- Crude Inventories, 03/12 (10:30): 2.52M prior

March 17 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 03/12 (08:30): 387K expected, 397K prior
- Continuing Claims, 03/05 (08:30): 3750K expected, 3771K prior
- CPI, February (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
- Core CPI, February (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
- Industrial Production, February (09:15): 0.6% expected, -0.1% prior
- Capacity Utilization, February (09:15): 76.5% expected, 76.10% prior
- Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.9% expected, 0.1% prior
- Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): 28.0 expected, 35.9 prior

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